When Prop Betting on Boxing Goes Wrong
Often in boxing, you come across a lop-sided matchup where the favorite is heavily favored, not just to win but to knock out his opponent. But in boxing, as in all sports, there is no such thing as a sure bet or "lock" as it's called. A match such as the recent Pacquio-Barrera super-featherweight match. If you don't follow lighter weight divisions, Pacquiao was the overwhelming favorite with a moneyline reading -260 for him and +220 for Barrera. Everyone took for granted he would win that many chose to wager instead on which round he would knock out Barrera. This is known as a prop bet.
So what happened?
Pacquiao did win, but the fight went the distance. If you'd made a prop bet on the Pacman to floor the Babyfaced Assassin in any round, you would've lost. But the few who risked betting on a full 12 rounds made a huge profit.
When prop betting in boxing, you must never let yourself be carried away by the hype leading up to an event. There's a whole lot more to boxing than punching power and speed, which Pacquiao undoubtedly has. Let's look at the factors that would've told a wise punter that a KO was less likely.
- IN THE FAVORITE'S CORNER. Pacquiao had a weight problem. He was 3 pounds overweight days away from the weigh-in. A boxer who is forced to shed excess pounds in a short time can lose a great deal of energy. Pacquiao was able to shed the extra pounds in time for the weigh-in; however the weight-loss effort affected his performance in the ring. It is also believed he was about 10 pounds overweight during the fight.
- IN THE UNDERDOG'S CORNER. Barrera was dead serious in his training for the rematch with the Pacman. He even hired as sparring mate a pro boxer who has the same fighting style as Pacman. Ring insiders would've known that Barrera was in great shape for this fight. And it showed. Barrera was never knocked down even once, let alone stopped, even though he was exhausted in the closing rounds.
We will leave out possible "political" reasons for the fight lasting 12 rounds. Our aim is to show you how important it is in prop betting to follow what goes on outside the ring. A fighter's corner, for one, is a vital source of information when gauging a boxer's potential for an upcoming fight.
In this example, the weight problem in the favorite's corner and solid training in the underdog's side combined to make a knockout impossible. Many factors influence each boxing match. As a punter, you have to watch many fights and analyze all factors involved to make your prop betting more accurate.
|
